Weekly Power Outlet US - 2024 - Week 12

We welcomed spring with the majority of day-ahead electricity prices higher week over week as some normalcy returned to seasonal weather. Front month natural gas prices continue to reflect the current state of storage as we've now reached a level where we are 41% above the five-year average.

Interestingly, when looking at the electricity calendar futures, PJM and MISO have been in a steady up trend over the last four weeks. One possible reason is that while the market has been focusing on the front month weakness the backend, or out months, have showed less weakness. In other words, the market has managed to stay in a steeper contango. For reference, a year ago the April/Jan spread was trading around $1.50 while the spread today is over $2. While this isn't a shockingly material difference, it does explain why the electricity futures might be stubbornly supportive for those looking for further selloff.

We are trying to move away from a weekly EV update....we promise, but the news is the news. This week the EPA finalized some of their long-term emissions standards. They greatly revised their goal of battery light vehicle sales by 2032 from 67% to between 30-56% (number varies on how they are recognized in total sales mix).

The revision of the number probably reflected strong industry and labor opposition (ironically, Michigan will be a swing state this fall). While that may be true, just reading some of the happenings in the land of EV over the past six months shows the public isn't totally onboard just yet which would have made 67% unrealistic. That's not to say, in the next couple years leaps in technology can't be made.

Speaking of technology and our ongoing Compute power replacing EV theme. Nvidia held sort of a Woodstock for computer chips this week. While we have just skimmed some of the headlines, the one that grabbed us was the new Blackwell architecture. Training a 1.8 trillion parameter model would have previously taken 8,000 Hopper GPUs and 15 megawatts of power, Nvidia claims. Today, Nvidia’s CEO says 2,000 Blackwell GPUs can do it while consuming just four megawatts. 15 to 4 MW for the same computing power is the definition of gamechanger.

Over the years we've had a love/eye roll relationship with IEA. I think we've pointed out a few times where we were skeptical of some data, while also praising their work as we've often quoted it. This week it looks like we have some company, although the criticism is much harsher than ours.

U.S. Senator John Barrasso (R-WY), ranking member of the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, and U.S. Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA), chair of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, sent a letter to Dr. Fatih Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and they didn't mince words. Here is the press release.

NOAA WEATHER FORECAST

DAY-AHEAD LMP PRICING & SELECT FUTURES

RTO AROUND THE CLOCK CALENDAR STRIP

DAILY RTO LOAD PROFILES

COMMODITIES PRICING

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