Weekly Power Outlet US - 2024 - Week 43
Electricity Yawner Prices, Aging Grid
Electricity Yawner Prices, Aging Grid
Energy Market Update Week 43, brought to you by Acumen.
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Natural gas has continued an impressive sell off as we hit November. The winter strip on Henry Hub is well below $3 after trading in the mid to upper $3s just a few weeks ago. Over supply and fair weather are still the key divers of the market, and it doesn't help that Europe is roughly 95% full for winter storage helping keep LNG prices somewhat muted. As expected, electricity has remained subdued with gas pricing.
Below are three charts of the around the clock 1 year futures strip for MISO Indy, PJM West, and ERCOT North. We've added a 50-week moving average to show the lack of volatility over the last six months to a year. The market have had some short-term spikes, but as shown, all three markets have reverted back to the moving average with no real trend. We aren't typically technical analyst types, but the flatness of MA paint about as good a no volatility picture as any words.
The first shot of winter hit the upper Midwest yesterday as parts of the west metro Minneapolis got up to five inches of heavy wet snow. This snow caused numerous power outages as heavy wet snow and leaves on trees aren't a great mix for powerlines. Interestingly, the local media was running a story regarding the power outages with a theme we've covered here in the past....outdated grid. In this case it was power poles. Over 65% of utility poles in Minnesota are over 50 years old. According to a local Fox9 story, Xcel alone has over 500,000 poles that over 50 years old, or four years past what the utility considers "useful life".
This isn't just an issue with poles in Minnesota. According to the DOE, 70% of the grids components are over 25 years old with the average age being upwards of 40 years. As we've commented, this spring the DOE rolled out ten specific projects that it said could help address development in what it called critical corridors. Those projects are moving forward, but at this point it appears to just be a fraction of what will be needed to address the age problem with our grid.
NOAA WEATHER FORECAST
DAY-AHEAD LMP PRICING & SELECT FUTURES
RTO ATC, PEAK, & OFF-PEAK CALENDAR STRIP
DAILY RTO LOAD PROFILES
COMMODITIES PRICING
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