Weekly Power Outlet US - 2025 - Week 10

Another winter storm has come and gone and spring feels like it might be springing as we head into moving our clocks ahead. If you look at the price of natural gas and electricity, it might look more like November with a brutal winter ahead.

As shown below, electricity futures continue to move higher as natural gas has continued its rally. As we have been noting, the natural gas domestic fundamentals have been shifting from ample storage supplies to below trend as we head into the build season. Throw in some tariff uncertainty and the market has caught a bid and settled above $4 MMBtu. Interestingly enough, the EU fundamentals have turned a bit. This week EU gas fell to a four-month low on the back of a possible peace deal, weak Asian demand allowing LNG to find a home in Europe, and some consideration of storage requirements being eased. We've seen in the past where the market in Europe can drive the US market, which makes keeping an eye on Europe a must.

One of the things we talk about from time to time is how speculative money can find its way into the gas market. Over the years, a very popular trade has been long oil and short gas. We aren't saying that is playing out right now, but the inverse market direction of the two is worth nothing. In the past, when we've seen these unwinds, it can get a little extreme for a bit as the market tends to extract the most pain, especially when leverage is funding the trades. Stay tuned

AI's load growth, and potential profit growth, for utilities has already bumped up against outcries from legacy ratepayers about funding the growth. Already there have been cases in front of FERC being asked to comment or rule on some of these issues. Utilities are trying to navigate the waters of new tariffs as it pertains to data centers.

This week, Ari Peskoe and Eliza Martin presented a paper on this topic. Instead of trying to give a book report, we are including the link and, while not everyone will agree with all the methodology, it's worth the time.

Speaking of tariffs, there appears to be some back and forth between ISO-NE, NYISO, and Canada. Canada has threatened some roll back of exports while the US ISOs claim they have enough supply. Ultimately this probably gets worked out as the Canadian exports are hydro and they can't just store the MWs out back in the parking lot. That said, this could get interesting as the conversations move forward.

NOAA WEATHER FORECAST

DAY-AHEAD LMP PRICING & SELECT FUTURES

RTO ATC, PEAK, & OFF-PEAK CALENDAR STRIP

DAILY RTO LOAD PROFILES

COMMODITIES PRICING

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