Weekly Power Outlet US - 2025 - Week 17

Over the past year, you've needed to look no further than the pages of the WPO to read about some of the impact of Compute power on the electric grid be it capacity, grid reliability, market pricing, etc. Over the past month or so, the early euphoria in datacenter build and power needs has started to be muted or talked down. Well, as the great football coach and commentator Lee Corso often says, "not so fast my friends". Just when it seemed like every earnings call and research report coming from Wall St was discussing the slowing of AI and data centers, CNBC is reporting on comments from a Powering AI event held by the Hamm Institute for American Energy at Oklahoma State. Executive from both Nvidia and Amazon have said they don't see significant changes and there might have been some "tea leaf reading and extrapolating to strange results". Regardless of the near-term headlines, both are saying the future is AI which means power growth needs to keep up.

As an aside, the Hamm Institute was founded by Harold Hamm. Mr. Hamm is known as the founder of Continental Resources. While hydraulic fracking has been around for years, Hamm and Continental, are among a few given credit for innovating to current use. The Bakken in North Dakota is said to owe its growth the Hamm and fracking.

NERC and FERC released a joint report on the winter reliability of the grid for the 2025 season. The report is detailed and gives a lot of information on various topics ranging from natural gas pipeline performance to ISO load forecasting errors. We aren't going to do a deep dive on these pages but suggest a quick browse. If more interested in the conclusion.....

During the January 2025 arctic events, the natural gas and electric systems performed well, as measured by no manual load shed, and benefitted from improved practices and procedures. Nevertheless, both systems continue to see
challenges from the extreme cold weather conditions, exposing continued gaps.

When speaking about electricity market long term potential drivers of volatility and demand, things like compute power, the just in time nature of natural gas, and future LNG usually make our list. While we've never really addressed it, maybe behind the meter generation needs to make the list. This week ISO-NE released data showing that Easter Sunday's sunny skies and mild temps drove demand for electricity to its lowest level ever.

Preliminary data shows that power system demand fell to 5,318 megawatts (MW) on the afternoon of April 20, 2025, as temperatures averaged 58°F across the region. This trend has been increasing as more behind the meter generation has come online. The ISO estimates a peak of around 6,600 MW of BTM PV production early Sunday.

NOAA WEATHER FORECAST

DAY-AHEAD LMP PRICING & SELECT FUTURES

RTO ATC, PEAK, & OFF-PEAK CALENDAR STRIP

DAILY RTO LOAD PROFILES

COMMODITIES PRICING

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