Weekly Power Outlet US - 2025 - Week 4

Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Sink Lower as Supply Holds Up was one of the headlines. We had mentioned that the new favorite metric of natural gas investors was expected freeze offs in the cold. February front month Henry Hub is trading near $3.80 MMBtu this morning after trading into the $4.30s heading into the three-day weekend last Friday. As expected, electricity futures prices have followed as curves have retreated from last week where 52-week highs were set in PJM and ERCOT.

Not many eyes were on the EIA storage report this week as more attention was paid to putting pencil to paper trying to figure out next week's number. For those scoring at home, the actual withdrawal for the week ending January 17th, was 233Bcf which was slightly below estimates.

We are just starting to get some of the Trump administration policies released and the analysis of what it will mean for energy is underway. We will let others cook in that kitchen and study the results....or eat, to stay with the metaphor. As much as we at home are interested in the outcomes, Europe has all eyes on as US LNG policy along with Russian sanctions, and thus gas, are on the agenda.

Earlier this week European natural gas traded above the key €50 per MWh level as discussions in Germany were under as to gas buying for spring and summer stockpiling. The EU has drawn down storage levels to where they ended last winter, and we are only in mid-January. Adding to the concern, the storm that dumped snow on Florida is now hitting Europe.

Last week we posted some snap shots of the pending weather and the alerts and warnings coming from various ISOs. This week we are happy to report that all seemed to go to plan for the various system operators. MISO summed it up best on their X account.....

This week President Trump named Mark Christie as the new Chairman of FERC. Christie replaces Willie Phillips who could stay on until his term expires later this year. The Commission has three Democrats and two Republicans which will remain until a departure. Over the years, Christie has tended to advocate for grid reliability over all else. He has warned in the past about early plant retirements and the lack of replacement. It will be interesting to see if he uses the pulpit to press the issue.

NOAA WEATHER FORECAST

DAY-AHEAD LMP PRICING & SELECT FUTURES

RTO ATC, PEAK, & OFF-PEAK CALENDAR STRIP

DAILY RTO LOAD PROFILES

COMMODITIES PRICING

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