Weekly Power Outlet US - 2025 - Week 5
Winter is Over!, PJM Load, ISO Cold Weather
Winter is Over!, PJM Load, ISO Cold Weather
Energy Market Update Week 5, brought to you by Acumen.
For More Updates Like This, Subscribe Here!This Sunday, the most famous prognosticator of the likelihood of winter continuing will take center stage, sniff the air, and take a bow while grown men in capes and top hates debate about a shadow....
Well, we are here to declare winter OVER! using an arguably more nuanced and aggregated method. Thank you, natural gas for the update....
This week the natural gas futures market rolled over to make March the front month. Above is the March chart showing the impressive rollover. Thursday EIA reported a 321 Bcf withdrawal during the cold spell last week. This was in line with expectations and the market quickly went back to supply fundamentals which continue to be strong. Looking at electricity prices below, there is ample red week over week as weather moderated.
Oh baby! PJM
There is no question we are not above the occasional congratulations slap on the back, so here goes! Over the course of the last two years, we've been invited to speak on the state of the electricity market on multiple occasions regarding, and noted on these pages, the changing electricity landscape and potential volatility. We have been consistent on saying don't worry about net-zero (doesn't make sense economically), don't be concerned about EV load ($110k for electric Silverado, good luck), and no need to worry about electrify everything (doesn't make sense). Two of the biggest drivers for us have been LNG potential to make natural gas markets around the world fungible, and compute power.
This week, PJM released their 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast and, clear throat here, H-O-L-Y cow! The PJM press release is worth the read, and as expected AI is the primary reason for some increased projections, but take a look at the middle and right-hand columns below, that's a revision from just a year ago on summer and winter peaks.
As an aside, given the above information, it might be of note that this week the P (Pennsylvania) in PJM reached an agreement with the ISO to set a limit on capacity in the next two auctions. As might be expected, other states are jumping on as well. This statement might be a bit controversial, but a load growth that seems to be exponential and price caps on the mechanism to incentivize new generation might not be setting up for the best outcome.
Last week we included posts from some of the ISOs announcing they'd made it through the first real big winter storm/cold of the year. We thought it only fair to share PJM's slap on the back post as well. In fairness to them, at press time last week, they were still working through the last of the storm. Here you go PJM, here's to you pulling through also.
NOAA WEATHER FORECAST
DAY-AHEAD LMP PRICING & SELECT FUTURES
RTO ATC, PEAK, & OFF-PEAK CALENDAR STRIP
DAILY RTO LOAD PROFILES
COMMODITIES PRICING
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