Weekly Power Outlet US - 2025 - Week 7
Winter is Alive, EIA STEO, Baseball is Back!
Winter is Alive, EIA STEO, Baseball is Back!
Energy Market Update Week 7, brought to you by Acumen.
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Here we go again! Pitchers and catchers are reporting so here comes spring? While the afternoon commute is no longer in the dark, the calendar still does read February.
ISO alerts are already pinging for cold weather heading our way next week. PJM has already called for conservative operations along with cold weather alerts. This one looks to be a multiple day event in the middle of the week when loads are highest.
March natural gas futures have jumped from around $3/MMBtu at the start of the month to $3.75 as the forecast has drawn the cold further south. The EIA storage report for the week ended February 7th, showed a withdrawal of 100 Bcf, which was higher than the 90 Bcf estimates. This is the third week in a row that showed a higher draw than estimated. As the chart shows below, storage levels are now working below the 5-year average as we head into what should be another big week.
Speaking of natural gas, this week EIA released their monthly short-term energy outlook. There are a couple interesting data points in their forecast in the charts below. As shown in the first chart, the expectation is for storage heading into next winter will be substantially lower than this year. Ironically, according to the bottom chart, the forecast for natural gas driven electricity generation is expected to be lower. This is based on pricing as EIA sees 2026 prices for natural gas rising to $4.20/MMBtu. They are also taking their 2025 price target to $3.80/MMBtu. This is an increase to estimates of $0.65/MMBtu from the month-old January report. That's almost Wall Street tech stock price target moving.
As mentioned above, the annual spring rebirth is upon us as pitchers and catchers reported this week. It might be cold, it might be overcast with snow flying in our back yards but take heart. Somewhere beer is cold, grass is freshly mowed, and the cracking of leather on leather, and leather on wood is almost here!
NOAA WEATHER FORECAST
DAY-AHEAD LMP PRICING & SELECT FUTURES
RTO ATC, PEAK, & OFF-PEAK CALENDAR STRIP
DAILY RTO LOAD PROFILES
COMMODITIES PRICING
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